Did you know there’s only a 0.18 correlation between purchase intent and actual purchase behaviour? Surprisingly, this has been known for over 30 years.
Since then, multiple studies have confirmed this to be true.
When viewed through a behavioural science lens, this makes sense. Consumer decision-making is largely emotional and subconscious. What people say they will do and what they actually do are often very different.
Despite this, many research approaches still rely on claimed intent as a key predictor of behaviour. Surveys that isolate concepts, ideas, or prototypes from real-world context continue to be seen as a reliable indicator of success, yet this approach rarely holds weight.
Where Does the Purchase Intent Gap Leave Us?
Despite its flaws, claimed purchase intent remains one of the most commonly used metrics in innovation and creative development. Global databases continue to rank ideas and concepts based on purchase intent scores, influencing major investment decisions.
It persists because it’s simple. It offers an easy-to-understand guide that seems to provide clarity in complex decision-making. Yet this simplicity often leads to poor decisions, costly investments, and innovations that fail to connect with consumers.
Why Purchase Intent Falls Short
Purchase intent is too blunt to capture the complexity of real-world decision-making. It overlooks the context in which buying decisions happen and often places too much focus on price as the primary driver.
In reality, consumer behaviour is shaped by a mix of emotional triggers, social influence, and unexpected incentives. For example, a consumer who initially rejected a product as too expensive may still purchase it because it satisfies a deeper need, such as pride of ownership or a sense of reward.
External factors also play a role. A well-timed promotion or a trusted recommendation can steer someone away from their original plan. These real-life influences make purchase intent an unreliable guide if used in isolation.
From a research perspective, purchase intent is also difficult to measure accurately. Common approaches such as Likert scales rely on subjective interpretations of statements like “I will definitely buy this.” What one person considers “definitely” may be very different from another’s interpretation, making it hard to draw consistent conclusions.
So, what should be the future of PI?
At Catalyx, we still use purchase intent, but with caution. We never rely on it alone. Instead, we combine it with other KPIs and place equal, if not greater, emphasis on qualitative insights that reveal the deeper motivations and behaviours driving consumer decisions.
Looking ahead, our focus is on harnessing unstructured data-rich, spontaneous consumer responses that provide a clearer view of how people behave in real life. As we continue building our Large Language Models, this data will deliver a more accurate and reliable measure of future behaviour than purchase intent alone ever could.
Many of our clients are already moving away from traditional purchase intent scores, embracing a more behavioural, real-world approach to innovation. The results speak for themselves. By shifting focus away from flawed PI norms and towards genuine consumer insight, brands are seeing stronger outcomes and more successful product launches.
Perhaps it’s time for purchase intent to lose its flawed grip on decision-making. The brands that embrace this shift are already building innovations with the best chance of success.
*(Morwitz,V et al “The link between purchase intentions and purchase behavior: Predicting across individuals and over time”, 1991)
Go beyond PI to innovate with confidence
We’re ready to unlock your innovation’s success, and won’t settle until our work does just that.
Don’t just take our word for it; check out our new website’s Case Studies to discover how our qual at quant scale approach has supercharged the success of innovations across industries.
Follow us on LinkedIn to make sure you never miss an announcement.
Let’s talk. Click here to innovate with confidence.
(Independent research conducted by Catalyx)
